¿Is Europe turning to the right?

¿Is Europe turning to the right?

Sunday june 9th, that is the date when we will know the results of the new European Parliament, 720 new members for this period, including fifteen new positions. These days all political parties are in work mode to persuaid the europeans with their own ideas and try to achieve the goal with  good results next Sunday.  

¿What can we expect?    

Most of the surveys shows an increase in potencial votes for the right. 

Some of them are likely to top the polls in nine member states (Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Slovakia) and others with similar ideas will come second or third in a further nine countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden).

Current seats in EU Parlamient:

Proyections of the elections

¿Who will probably lose?

The proyection of the European council on foreing relations shows that the two main political groups in the parliament – the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) – will likely continue to lose seats (they have lost seats in the last two European Parliament elections). This reflects the long-term decline in support for mainstream parties and the growing support for smaller and new parties across Europe, which is resulting in an increasing fragmentation of European party systems, at both the national and European levels.

Also they predict that the centrist Renew Europe (RE) group and the Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA) will also lose seats, falling from 101 to 86 and 71 to 61 respectively. Meanwhile, the Left group should increase their representation from 38 to 44 seats. In addition, if the Five Star Movement in Italy, which they predict will win 13 seats, decided not to sit with the non-attached (NI) MEPs, it may choose to join either the G/EFA or the Left, which would bolster the number of MEPs sitting to the left of the S&D.

The winners

The main winners in the elections will be the right. The major winner will be the  right Identity and Democracy (ID) group, which we expect to gain 40 seats and, with almost 100 MEPs, to emerge as the third largest group in the new parliament.

The survey predict that the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group will gain 18 new seats, this as a result of Brothers of Italy (FdI) emerging as one of the largest delegations in the European Parliament (with 27 seats).  And, if Fidesz in Hungary (which we expect to win 14 seats) decides to join the ECR rather than to sit with the non-attached MEPs, the ECR could overtake RE and ID and become the third largest group.

We expect the ECR and ID groups together to account for 25 per cent of MEPs, and have more seats combined than the EPP or the S&D for the first time.

What are the principal issues for EU citizens?

If we check how the european people are feeling, and we see in detail some answers from the eurobarometer survey, one of the questions is what do you think are the two most important issues facing (our region) at the moment?.  The two principal answers are the cost of living and the economic situation and unemployment.

As we see the big question is who can really reprensent the principal issues of the europeans these days?  If we add more factors, some experts say we can find a deep identity crisis, a conflict between  national identity and the regional values promoved by the EU. if finally we considerer the current war in Ukraine and the permanent tension with Russia, we will get a very special mix of factors that will decide the election. The thermometer says Europe is turning to the right, and we will know next Sunday.